CPAC poll elevates loser Lake and deflates Greene and DeSantis.
Do the brassy CPAC'ers fear Greene's tin foil hat?
I’ve tried in the last week to avoid reading or watching any reports from the CPAC conference in Maryland, which Jimmy Kimmel described as “the convention for all your worst aunts and uncles.” Not wanting to dredge up my own political confrontations, I took a pass.
But it was hard to completely avoid listening to what was happening, and one bit of news caught my attention: the CPAC poll, not for president, which the disgraced former guy won handily with 62 percent of the 2,000+ polling sample. It was the poll results for vice president that intrigued me–mainly because of what it said about Arizona’s Kari Lake, and didn’t say about Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Lake Rising
Lake topped the VP poll, which was interesting since Lake lost the 2022 Arizona governor’s race to now Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs. Lake has never conceded and filed two court challenges to reverse the finding, lost those, and still claims she didn’t lose.
Coincidentally, Lake, a former Phoenix Fox TV anchor, left her job in March 2021 after a television news industry site questioned whether Lake’s attendance at CPAC that year was to cover it–or attend as a member. Shortly afterward, Lake quit her TV job and filed to run in the Arizona governor’s race. (deseret.com/2021/10/15/2271/13081/how-kari-lake-went-from-the-mainstream-media-to-arizonas-leading-maga-candidate-for-governor-trump-fox). .
DeSantis Dipping
Humiliatingly, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second for a VP slot he doesn’t even want, winning only 14 percent of the polling sample. DeSantis avoided the embarrassment by skipping CPAC altogether this year to launch a book tour, ostensibly timed as a prelude to taking a stab at running for president.
Already-announced presidential candidate Nikki Haley came in 10 points behind Lake at 10 percent, but only four points behind DeSantis.
More discouragingly for DeSantis, he also came up short in the CPAC presidential poll, scoring a distant 20 percent to Trump’s first place showing of almost two-thirds of the tally, showing Trump’s still strong hold on his party’s ultra-conservative wing.
Given Trump’s incandescent dislike for DeSantis and belief Nikki Haley’s campaign doesn’t have the “juice” to pose a serious threat, Trump conceivably would never take Haley on the ticket, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador’s having committed the cardinal sin of challenging him. Add it all up and it’s no surprise Lake emerges as the de facto VP favorite with Trump’s MAGA supporters as evidenced by the CPAC vote.
And Trump likes Lake, as in, he really likes the former Arizona candidate. Witness his adoring looks when standing side by side with her last year on the campaign trail, and Trump’s invitation for Lake to come to Mar-A-Lago to lick her wounds after her November 8, 2022 election defeat.
Better yet, unlike Trump’s previous running mate, Mike Pence, Lake has no serious political history–the kind that might object to not certifying election results, for example.
Lake’s background as a television journalist who held no previous political experience makes sense in Trump world circa 2023. If Trump were to win the presidency a second time, Lake would fit right into an administration likely populated with less- or inexperienced cabinet members and appointees.
A second term Trump administration would be more brazenly devoid of those pesky experienced types like James Mattis, H.R. McMaster, and Generals Mark Milley and John Kelly who gave him a hard time by placing guardrails against Trump's most dangerous instincts. Unlike Mattis, McMaster, Milley, Kelly and even Pence at the end, Lake-as-novice, when instructed to jump, would be likely to ask, “how high?” Lake’s political malleability, dishonesty about the 2022 election, and history of going to the mattresses over so-called “voter fraud” would in many ways qualify her as a perfect fit for a Trump White House 2.0.
Lake doesn’t come to the table with a spotless record from her days as news anchor, either. Lake famously accused Arizona teachers’ pay raise protests, part of a nationwide wave of desperately underpaid teachers rising up to get paid more, as being “a big push to legalize pot.” Forced by audience blowback to apologize, Lake did so, barely, calling it an “incorrect conclusion.” She then took a month off, ostensibly to consider any next moves.
Strange Lake “catch”
Yet, there’s a catch with Lake–a bizarre one even in the already bizarre world of Trump’s reelection effort. A Tweet issued by Lake’s campaign spokesperson last weekend put an unexpected damper on talk of Lake’s VP prospects, saying:
“We’re flattered, but unfortunately our legal team says the Constitution won’t allow for her to serve as Governor and VP at the same time” (huffpost 6 march 2023).
More up-is-down-and-down-is-up part of the universe Trump, his followers, and most loyal acolytes live in? Or a case of Lake having boxed herself in by ongoing claims she won the Arizona governor’s race when two courts that heard Lake’s challenges, supported by multiple painstaking recounts of the state’s vote count, said she did not.
In a way you have to give Lake credit for chutzpah. Lake’s sticking to an irrational stance seems both a blessing, because Republican voters like the whole “take it to the man” election denier trope, and a curse, because it could stand in the way of her being on a national ticket with Trump.
Lake: pillow guy as patriot
Still, Lake’s national star shone brightly when the former Phoenix news anchor’s stubborn, hard-boiled brand took center stage as the headliner at last Friday’s Reagan dinner at CPAC.
There she seemed to revel in the menacing image her critics have ascribed to her saying, “You’re damn right we’re dangerous!” after thanking My Pillow guy Mike Lindell for attending the dinner and describing him as “one of the greatest patriots who’s ever lived!” (c-span.org 3 march 2023).
Lake apparently enjoys saying “damn,” as she used the word again a week ago during a Piers Morgan interview, telling him: “I don’t give a damn what you say!” while being questioned about her insistence the midterms were “stolen.” So “damn” has become a favorite word in Lake’s go-to lexicon, using it both as an adverb and a noun.
The lady needs a chair!
While the CPAC poll and audience reaction to her “damn right!” keynote speech offered good news for Lake, it also raises questions about another rising star in the GOP firmament: Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Greene has been eyeing the second spot on the presidential ticket since winning her Congressional seat in 2020 for Georgia’s 14th District, patterning her style after Trump who ended up losing his bid that year for a second term.
Greene has paid dues where Lake hasn’t–helping Trump with the Jan. 6 insurrection even before she was sworn in as a member of Congress, appearing at rallies, and talking him up at her own campaign appearances. So why does Lake seem to be edging her out? And where does Greene now end up in this ever-evolving game of political musical chairs? Answer: Without a chair, for the moment, at least if the CPAC attendees are
any gauge.
Curious as to whether Greene was listed on CPAC’s poll for preferred VP candidates, this morning I searched for “Greene’s placement on CPAC polls list of VP candidates” and various other permutations of that search criteria, and came up with nothing. I found no coverage at all in the mainstream media or blogosphere that reported on how poorly Greene came out in the CPAC VP poll, or if she were even on the list.
Provocateur
It’s hard without more information to speculate exactly why Greene seems snubbed by CPAC voters and by Trump himself who appears more interested in Lake as a running mate than the newly reelected Georgia Congresswoman.
After all, it’s not for lack of publicity that Greene has emerged as one of the most talked about Republican figures in Washington now that Republicans control the House of Representatives.
That’s a change from her days in the Democratically-led 117th Congress when Greene was kicked off two committees by a bi-partisan vote for threatening the lives of Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Kerry.
But this year, having supported Kevin McCarthy for House Speaker, Greene’s reward has been two committee assignments–Homeland Security and House Oversight, in addition to the Jim Jordan-led subcommittee on the “weaponization of government,” which at this point appears to be a dud due to unreliable witnesses and lack of evidence, as described in Rolling Stone’s March 2 report, “Inside Jim Jordan’s Search for a “Deep State Whistleblower.”
Due to a Republicans’ holding a back-to-back spate of hearings, Greene has been all over the news for a litany of gob-smacking statements, garnering headlines such as “Greene Calls for ‘National Divorce’ Between Red and Blue States,” “Marjorie Taylor Greene says an elementary school received $5.1 billion for ‘equity and diversity,’”and ”Marjorie Taylor Greene Assails Ex-Twitter Execs for Banning Her Account.”
Bannon weighs in
Erstwhile Trump hanger-on and former 2016 campaign manager Steve Bannon also seemed to tout Greene’s viability as a VP contender, saying he, “saw Greene on the shortlist of VP candidates.” And, further, describing Greene as:
“No shrinking violet. She’s ambitious. She’s not shy about it, nor should she be” (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3829769-bannon-marjorie-taylor-greene-sees-herself-on-the-short-list-for-trumps-vp/).
Over the past two years Trump, too, has boosted speculation of Greene’s running with him by often inviting Greene to speak at his high-profile rallies. Greene’s appearances stoked media speculation Trump could be eyeing her as his VP choice, as Fox News did with this Oct. 12, 2022 headline: “Marjorie Taylor Greene’s presence at Trump rallies sparks talk
of 2024 ticket.”
What may have changed
So why is Greene nowhere to be found on CPAC’s dream ticket? Having not attended CPAC this year (or any other), TRG is left to speculate about what may have changed since the fall of 2022 when talk of Greene’s being national ticket material appeared at its peak.
The answer might be found in other recent Greene headlines: “Marjorie Tylor Green roasted after she complains about salary and how Congress makes her ‘miserable’”; “Marjorie Taylor Greene Knocked for Claim School Received $5.1B for CRT”; “Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Miserable Congress Record”; “Marjorie Tylor Greene Lamented the Fall of Math Literacy and Accidentally Ended up Proving her Case”; and “I can’t control everybody’: GOP chair dodges on Marjorie Tylor Greene’s conspiracy theories.”
CPAC lionized Donald Trump in spite of his record of lies, attempted insurrection, legal problems, and following, copycat style, the governing playbooks of dictators like Vladimir Putin. So why not support Greene who tracks with Trump’s agenda hand-in-glove?
Brass v. tin
Could it be that even brassy CPAC members know they can’t win in 2024 with a tin-foil hat-wearing candidate like Greene on the ticket? Remember, Greene won her seat in 2020 having her only work “experience,” outside that of intermittent employment in the family construction business, as a blogger/commenter on a Q’Anon site.
Greene’s history of bonkers theories includes the hurtful claim that school shootings are “false-flag” operations by Democrats trying to get rid of guns, praising the mythical “Q” as a patriot, asserting that the 9/11 attacks “never happened,” and the now familiar speculation that California brush fires are being caused by Jewish space lasers.
CPAC members, and Trump himself, may be thinking, “Maybe Greene’s district in Northwest Georgia can fall for this cr**, but the baggage that goes with it will detract from a national campaign.”
The Palin effect
Having an outspoken candidate who advances foolish theories would not be a first for a Republican Party that embraced Sarah Palin in 2008 as presidential hopeful John McCain’s vice presidential running mate. Palin inspired Saturday Night Live skits (as Greene does now) like the one where Tina Fey as Palin asserts she’d be comfortable addressing foreign policy issues because she “can see Russia from my house.”
But even a less than a one-term governor as Palin was had a record to run on, including her successfully working with Democrats on oil-related issues harming the state.
In contrast, Greene has no record of accomplishment in the two plus years she’s been serving in Congress and eschews working with Democrats in any form. She’s famously accosted Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) in the halls of Congress as “supporting terrorists” because AOC endorsed Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality. And Greene routinely shows disrespect to the sitting president, as she did by shouting “Liar!” during President Biden’s supportive statements about Social Security and Medicare during his State of the Union address.
But perhaps Greene’s greatest drawback remains a record of underperformance during her two plus years in the House. Greene has neither drafted nor succeeded in passing any legislation to help her
Georgia constituents.
And this year’s proposed legislation either as sponsor or co-sponsor are all focused on her trademark cultural issues—punishing health officials for Covid restrictions, expanding gun freedoms to all Americans, and further restricting women's reproductive freedoms. None brings home any political bacon to the economically and medically challenged voters of Georgia’s District 14.
Lake also has no legislative record, not because she’s too busy fighting cultural issues, but because she suffers from never having been elected to any state or local office at all. Yet she lacks Greene’s Q’Anon history that would pose problems on a national stage and in a VP candidates debate.
Plus, Lake seems to have finessed how to mirror Trump’s combative style without competing for the spotlight, a key requirement for anyone running on a Trump-topped ticket, and something Greene has yet to prove.
A not ready for prime time player?
Could Greene’s inability to get any real work done in Congress; track record of making enemies, unnecessarily; inability to shake her allegiance to goofball theories; and history of being a loose cannon who embarrasses herself, and her party, in one committee hearing after another be keeping the Georgia Congresswoman from being seen as vice presidential material? After all, many MAGA acolytes can answer to having some of the same
issues themselves.
Whatever the reason, those voters now appear to be more infatuated with a former Phoenix news anchor than the Georgia flamethrower.
Should hard-boiled Kari Lake ever figure out a way to run for VP while remaining “the Governor of Arizona,” the former Phoenix news anchor could be poised to elbow Greene out of the way for good, when the time is right.
–trg