What if Trump called for an insurrection and nobody came?
Rioters, just say you've been "unavoidably detained."
Since Jan. 6, almost a thousand Capitol rioters have faced or will face charges, with many already now serving time in prison.
Saturday, Trump invited a new as yet unseen group of followers to take to the streets when he’s indicted for the hush money payoff scheme currently being investigated by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
An ALL CAPS call to action
In his posting, Trump said, using his signature scream-mode writing style:
“WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST. TAKE OUR NATION BACK!”
Trump’s call to action appears more an attempt to control the story than reflect it accurately at the moment. Trump spokesperson and lawyer Susan Necheles admitted Trump has not heard anything from Bragg’s office, but relied on “media reports” of planning activities taking part in New York City in preparation for a possible indictment. In other words, Trump is riling up his supporters having just read between the lines.
Trump’s bugle call in all caps can’t help but remind us of his late December 2020 call to militants to come to the Capitol on Jan. 6, Tweeting: “Be there, will be wild!”
Maddow weighs in on “civic cost”
Thousands tricked out in military gear and either wearing weapons or parking them nearby responded, creating a firestorm of violence not seen in the U.S. Capital since the British burned Washington in 1814.
Will Trump’s posse of Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other militant groups show up again this time? Pundits on Saturday morning news programs fear so. This morning, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow said:
“With these posts we know what his overall defense will be–to raise the civic cost of indicting him. He’s trying to bring intimidation and pressure to bear against the prosecutors considering indicting him and create fear there will be another Jan. 6 event.”
Maddow warned Trump and his followers that taking to the streets would be counter-productive to Trump’s political goal of winning back the
White House.
A possible indictment on a charge related to campaign finance tax and business fraud “needn't be the end of the world for him and could be a positive for him,” said Maddow, adding that Trump would not be all that different from scores of other politicians who have faced similar charges and lived to fight another day.
Foolish
In other words, since Trump still faces far more serious charges in Georgia and Washington for racketeering offenses and attempts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election, Trump would be foolish to overreact in New York.
Another reason Trump’s foot soldiers have good reason to hold off on any Big Apple protests centers around their own well-being. According to a Jan. 6, 2023 report in the Huffington Post, 950 Jan. 6 rioters have been charged, with still others under investigation. And 192 have already been sentenced to
jail time.
Many of the rioters have been defended by state-appointed public defenders at an average cost of $50,000 per defendant, according to an Orlando, Florida CBS affiliate that investigated costs to the government related to Jan. 6. For accused rioters who choose to hire their own attorneys, their out-of-pocket outlays could be multiple times that amount.
Insurrectionists like Richard “Bigo” Barnett from Gravette, Arkansas who famously put his feet up on a desk in then Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office and stole items there personify rioters who may not fully understand what awaits them if caught and prosecuted for their crimes.
Found guilty on January 23rd on eight charges, Barnett will be sentenced in May, facing up to a possible 47 years in prison. Talking to reporters after his conviction, Barnett complained he was unfairly convicted because the jury was not made up of people from Arkansas, but rather from Washington D.C. where his crimes occurred.
Serving notice
The still ongoing prosecutions of the Jan. 6 insurrectionists have served notice to today's would-be rioters that they too will pay for supporting Trump through violence.
For one thing, catching them should be easier, as New York law enforcement is taking pains to head-off and catch rioters, unlike Jan. 6 when rioters largely caught Capitol police off guard. Reports are that Georgia law enforcement is also developing elaborate response and prevention strategies, as would presumably be the case in the nation’s capitol should the Department of Justice charge Trump there for refusing to hand over national security secrets and his involvement with Jan. 6.
Moreover, rioters should be aware that a president cannot pardon criminals found guilty of state crimes. Trump has threatened to pardon all Jan. 6 insurrectionists if he becomes president again.
WACO rally, no coincidence?
But Trump shows no sign of reigning in either his own worst impulses or those of his followers, scheduling his first 2024 campaign stop for March 25 in Waco, Texas.
Waco became the site of a confrontation between federal lawmen and the religious cult called the Branch Davidians between February 28 and April 19, 1993. Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms agents raided the property having received reports of the cult group stockpiling illegal weapons. The 51-day standoff ended when federal machinery rammed the main building. A fire started, killing 76 church members. In all, 82 Davidians were killed along with four federal agents.
Familiar theme
Trump’s choice of Waco as his first 2024 campaign rally site suggests the former president is at least symbolically setting up a thematic confrontation between militants and the American government, under the aegis of the Trump campaign.
If so, Maddow, for one, suggests a reprise of Jan. 6-type violence will not help Trump win back the Oval Office, just as a matter of practical politics if nothing else, saying:
“If he’s asking for a militant, racially tinged violent response from his followers, that’s something that won’t be good for him. January 6th was not good for Trump’s political legacy; it didn’t make him more electable.”
And it also won’t help Trump’s arrested violent followers, as the January 6 insurrectionists can attest.
–trg